Prediction in Complex Seemingly Random or Chaotic Systems Discussed Philosophically

Can we really predict seemingly chaotic events and systems? Many believe that we can if we just know the exact starting point and all the components along the way, but therein lies the problem, we can't know. Yes, so many folks attempt to predict the future, including myself, working so hard to find the patterns, the clues, the nuances, and subtle tale tell signs. Let's talk. Did you ever see the Hollywood Movie; "Knowing" by Nicholas Cage where he figures out the mathematics of future events, disasters? Even the ability to predict the end of days; or, how about "A Beautiful Mind" about the famous mathematician John Nash, working to find the secret, he never did, went nearly insane trying, still, this notion of trying to understand using math seems to have a logical basis, and many have pursued to their own peril, and yet, maybe they are right. If you read up on the RAND Corporation, the Think Tank which attempted to quantify everything and make future predictions and strategies for our military during the cold war, you see that the best and brightest minds were hired to work on such seemingly impossible problems. For instance, please read: 1.) "Soldiers of Reason - The RAND Corporation and the Rise of the American Empire," by Alex Abella, 2008 (uncorrected proof copy). 2.) "Think Tanks," by Paul Dickenson, 1971. Now then, on an intellectual note, please indulge me in taking this dialogue to a higher level. You see, Ray Kurzweil a rather prominent engineer, scientist and now futurist explains to us that while it is almost impossible to know the long-term future, it's relatively easy to get most of your predictions right in the short term - 2, 3, or 5 years for instance. He's not the first to note this - myself and others in fact have said this before and concur with this observation. When predicting the weather, we are pretty good at it for 2-3 days, 4-at the most, but beyond that it is silly to entertain the prediction models or to use them to make plans for your family BBQ. I know this, having been in the car washing sector which relies on the weather to determine volume, thus labor needs. When using algorithms to predict the stock market or individual funds, stocks, ETFs, or commodities, very recent past information and trend is an excellent predictor of near term movements, we've all seen how derivative strategies work. By the way check out "The Black-Scholes Formula," on YouTube (in 5-parts, approximately 10-minutes each). We can predict some long-term trends provided we know the exact starting point of all interactive events effecting our system or model, and although we know we cannot, just as we cannot know when an anomaly in "white noise" will occur without knowing all the events through space time, like Brownian Motion we can know that the probability of X-number of events of x-number of types should occur until the anomaly makes modification of our computer modeling, that is if our input has been made honestly and with painstaking detail. Even one fudging of the numbers or data for political reasons or otherwise, changes the entire set of events of the mathematically precise world inside the Matrix (Hollywood Movie). From each inflection point of each anomaly we can predict the "near-term" new trending lines very well, but only for a very brief time period. Thus, it is there we must concentrate our efforts, and that's where I concentrate mine. Be well, live well, and live longest!

What Are E-Learning Solutions and How is it Beneficial?

A definition of e-Learning would read: the delivery of learning, training, or an educational program through electronic means. In practical application, this usually means learning something, either a skill that can be learned in a couple of hours, or even a short course that comes in a curriculum, while removed from a typical classroom or school setting, mostly bereft of an actual instructor or teacher, and often learned in an individual setting, rather than in a classroom set up. While there are many applications wherein e-learning may be applied, the end goal of the exercise shares the same purpose as that of a school-setting type of learning: that of education and training. In the case of people who are otherwise pre-occupied with other tasks and are really not in a position to devote a significant amount of time to learning in a traditional setting, this may be the most viable option to learn additional skill sets which may aid them in achieving the end goal of the project, or at least allow them to increase their output. This has actually become quite a preferred mode of learning in many institutions and among individuals as well, since it comes with the convenience of having to learn at one's own pace, and at a schedule which is often tailored to when they are actually able to spare some time for learning. The tools have actually been modified and optimized to a point wherein a course learned through an e-Learning solutions platform is comparable, and sometimes even superior to the results that can be derived from certain classroom learning settings. Why are e-Learning solutions gaining popularity among people nowadays? 1. Defined pace - compared to some courses wherein learners are expected to absorb and learn everything that is thrown at them regardless of their learning curve, this allow learners to choose their pace of learning, allowing them to invest more time in certain aspects of the lesson that they are having difficulty in understanding. 2. Self-directed learning - despite the fact that the curriculum being taught in schools are, even before they are taught, thoroughly analyzed and structured to deliver the most learning to a student, there are always instances wherein some learners cannot see the rationale of learning a particular lesson or aspect of the course, and deem the entire lesson or even the course as a waste of time. These are typically self-directed, allowing learners to choose the content they wish to learn about and even the tools to be used in the learning process, allowing them to generate self-interest, since they define what piques their interest. 3. Viable for multiple learning styles - While there are progressive learning institutions that do facilitate the latest in learning styles and even provide for the various learning styles, some learning institutions would rather stick to the tried and tested methods, since training educators in the new learning styles would necessarily mean more expenses for the school, which they are not often allowed to transmit to the students through the tuition. These are designed to facilitate the various learning styles of people, since the scope is more global. These are just a few of the reasons why more people are looking into this learning mode, and also the reason for the sudden proliferation of e-learning tools all over the internet.

Computer Careers Training - News

Good for you! As you're looking at this you've doubtless been pondering on retraining for a new career - so you've already done more than most. Less of us than you'd think are happy and fulfilled in our work, but no action is ever taken. You could be a member of the few who make a difference in their lives. Before we even think about any career courses, look for an advisor who can talk you through which area will be right for you. A person who will get a feel for your personality, and find out what types of work suit you: * Do you like to work collaborating with people? Would you prefer to work with a small team or with many new people? It could be working by yourself in isolation would give you pleasure? * The building trade and the banking industry are facing difficulties today, so it's important to look very carefully at what sector will answer your needs? * Once your training has been completed, would you like your new abilities to see you to retirement age? * Do you think being qualified will give you the opportunity to find the work you're looking for, and remain in employment until you choose to stop? We would advise that you consider IT - it's no secret that it's getting bigger. IT isn't all techie geeks gazing at their PC's all day - naturally some IT jobs demand that, but most jobs are carried out by ordinary men and women who earn considerably more than most. Be watchful that any qualifications you're considering doing will be recognised by employers and are current. 'In-house' exams and the certificates they come with are usually worthless. Only fully recognised examinations from the top companies like Microsoft, Adobe, CompTIA and Cisco will open the doors to employers. Beware of putting too much emphasis, as can often be the case, on the accreditation program. You're not training for the sake of training; this is about employment. Stay focused on what it is you want to achieve. It's a testament to the marketing skills of the big companies, but the majority of trainees kick-off study that often sounds amazing from the prospectus, but which provides a job that is of no interest at all. Just ask several university graduates for a real eye-opener. You also need to know your feelings on career development, earning potential, and if you're ambitious or not. You need to know what the role will demand of you, what accreditations are required and where you'll pick-up experience from. Seek help from an experienced industry professional that appreciates the market you're interested in, and who can give you 'A typical day in the life of' understanding of what duties you'll be performing with each working day. It'd be sensible to understand whether or not this is right for you long before the training program is started. After all, what is the reason in starting your training only to discover you're on the wrong course. Get rid of any salesperson that recommends a training program without a decent chat to assess your abilities as well as level of experience. Always check they have access to a large choice of training products so they're able to provide you with what's right for you. Of course, if you've had any relevant work-experience or certification, then you will often be able to commence studying further along than a trainee with no history to speak of. If you're a student commencing IT study as a new venture, it can be helpful to ease in gradually, starting with user-skills and software training first. This can be built into most accreditation programs. Often, students don't think to check on a painfully important area - the way the company actually breaks down and delivers the training materials, and into how many separate packages. Training companies will normally offer a 2 or 3 year study programme, and deliver each piece one-by-one as you pass each exam. Sounds reasonable? Well consider these facts: With thought, many trainees understand that their providers typical path to completion isn't ideal for them. It's often the case that varying the order of study will be far more suitable. Perhaps you don't make it at the pace they expect? Put simply, the best option is to have their ideal 'order' of training laid out, but make sure you have all of your learning modules right from the beginning. You then have everything in case you don't finish inside of their required time-scales.

What to Look for in Online College Courses

There was a time when there were just a few colleges that offered online classes, but now it seems as if almost all educational institutions offer at least some, and some of these offer entire degree programs. If you have never thought about taking online college courses, then now might be the time. By doing a little research, you will find that there is a college out there with the major you are looking for, the degree you want and the class schedule that fits your busy life. There are many significant differences that can be found in online college courses, and the ones you choose will likely depend on your current schedule. Some classes follow a set semester or quarter schedule just like at a traditional campus, while other colleges allow you to start a class whenever you are ready to go. Some instructors will require you to log on at particular times for group chats, while others will let you log on whenever you have the time. Another major difference between schools is that some degree programs can be completed entirely online. That means that in a few years, you can have your degree without ever having set foot in a classroom. If you are located far away from a college, in another country or just don't want to be bothered with going to a campus, then this is the ideal situation. On the other hand, some people like just a little bit of the "college experience," so you can take online college courses as a way to supplement traditional, in-person classes. No matter what direction you take or what type of classes you end up enrolling in, you will find that online education is the ideal way to achieve your educational goals and finally get on the career path of your dreams.

Online Education Advantages and Disadvantages

With all of the different choices available now for continuing your education, how can one decide what is best? It can be very hard to muddle through all of the information and find what is best for you. If you are considering an online degree program, we have listed a few advantages and disadvantages for online degrees. We can't make the decision for you but we can supply you with the facts. Advantages: 1. Flexibility. This can be a broad concept when talking about online degrees, but the flexibility allows you a lot of freedom. You can attend school and work it around your personal and professional obligations and you are able to "attend" school wherever there is a computer. 2. Improves your computer skills. You will constantly be on the computer and the internet so you will quickly learn to better navigate your way. You now have all of your knowledge at your fingertips. 3. More opportunities to be involved. You might wonder how you can do this behind a screen, but that screen has been shown to help get students more involved in class discussions. Since you do not have the actual fear of someone next to you making fun of you for raising your hand it has been proven that students participate more and digest the information better. Disadvantages: 1. Lack of motivation. If you lack motivation in your everyday then getting an online degree may not be best for you. When you are on your schedule, you have to force yourself to be disciplined in learning the material. Only you can determine your success. 2. Lack of social interaction. When you attend a traditional school there is constantly things happening and you always see people. When you attend an online degree program there are days when you won't leave your house and your face to face connection with others will not happen. 3. Computer issues. Yes, this can be a disadvantage also. There are a million things that can happen with your computer and internet and they usually happen at the worst times. It will be important to always have a plan B in place in case your internet goes down or your computer dies. Only you can decide what learning environment is right for you. Now that there is less of a stigma about obtaining an online degree, you are able to have more options. Whatever way you choose, you are one step further to your next degree.

Earning Your College Degree Through Technology

Advancing and never ceasing to be better is one of man's greatest dreams. Some give up everything they have for that principle, some wants to but couldn't due to some financial problems. An Online college degree is the answer to this. Due to the flexibility and robustness of the courses in an online college degree program, one can earn a college degree even he/she is working or at home. More and more online colleges are being opened and this means more opportunity for you to earn your online college degree. These programs vary with every college and you would want to have the best by collecting the information first from the websites of your chosen online colleges. Earning the right online degree means studying to an accredited online institution and undergoing the right syllabus and courses for your degree. Remember these courses vary in every online college but are mostly the same for those online colleges and universities who are accredited since they passed the same standard. Practically speaking, there is not much difference in earning your degree whether online or traditional. In these online schools the subjects or courses are basically the same as those given at traditional colleges and universities. Online universities are at an advantage though in terms of passing rate. With the flex time online universities follows, you can take your test and examinations at your own specified time thus making earning the credit hours for that course have high percentage unlike for traditional college which you are scheduled for exams and test. If you're not ready, then you'll probably fail. There are also notions that earning a degree online is far more expensive than taking it from a traditional college, but the truth is earning your college degree through online is way too cheaper compared to the cost of traditional universities. Expenses such as for boarding and lodging, transportation allowance, meal allowance and other school fees are not included if ever you choose to earn your degree through online. You can just take the courses at the comforts of your home, foods in your table and no need to wake up early just to catch up the train (in case you live far from the campus) and not be late for your class. With all of these factors, earning your college degree through an online program is never a bad idea after all.

Online Degrees vs Traditional Degrees

Sloan Consortium, a group of organizations dedicated to quality online education, said in the seventh edition of its annual report on the state of online learning in the U.S. that online enrollments, which have been growing at a faster rate than the total higher education student population, are showing no signs of slowing. The report stated that over 4.6 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall term of 2008 - an increase of 17 percent over the previous year and far exceeding the 1.2 percent growth in the overall higher education student population. It is clear that online education is emerging as a popular choice for the new-age student. However, a debate is still raging over which is better - online degree programs or on-campus degrees. While there is no easy answer to this because which of the two alternatives work better for you depends to a large degree on your circumstances, let's compare the two modes of education on some important parameters to get a clearer picture. Accessibility Online: One of the greatest breakthroughs of online education has been that it has made higher education accessible to many people, who are unable to attend a bricks and mortar school for a variety of reasons. Moreover, online students are not bound by any geographical limits. They can apply to any school of their choice as they are free to pursue an online program from anywhere. Campus: Campus-based education still works within a fairly rigid structure. From location to lodging, everything needs to fall in place if you are considering traditional, classroom-based degree programs. Validity Online: "Diploma mills" are the biggest bane of online education. Diploma mills are fraudulent institutions that sell unaccredited degrees, which involve no serious academic study. It is, therefore, imperative that students check the credentials of a university offering online programs. Accredited online degrees are accepted as valid degrees by academicians as well as employers. There is no greater indicator of its validity than the availability of federal student aid to those enrolled in an eligible online degree program at an accredited Title IV-eligible institution. Campus: Although there may be some fraudulent bricks and mortar schools, the prevalence of such schools is comparatively less than substandard or unaccredited online schools. However, even if you are attending campus-based programs, it's good to have your tracks covered by checking the reputation and accreditation status of the school. Acceptance Online: Various research organizations have statistics to prove the growing acceptability of online degrees. Academic leaders as well as employers now acknowledge the legitimacy of online programs and most treat them at par with traditional degrees. Campus: According to some experts, certain programs are less suited for online only schools. Campus-based learning is generally advisable for disciplines like engineering. Programs that require extensive practical and hands on training or involve great deal of laboratory work are better pursed at a bricks and mortar institute. Quality Online: This again ties back to the question of validity and acceptability of online degrees. There has been a greater acceptability of online degrees because of the perceived improvement in the quality of education disbursed through these programs. In fact, many universities have started offering online programs to capture the growing market. According to a survey conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics, 66 percent of 2-year and 4-year Title IV degree-granting post-secondary institutions reported offering online, hybrid/blended, or other distance education courses during the 2006-07 academic year. Campus: The quality of education offered by reputed campus-based programs is most often top-notch. The faculty members are trained and the programs, designed by experts, adhere to strict quality criteria. However, there is a rising trend wherein online degrees offered by an institute are exactly the same in content as its on campus degrees. Flexibility Online: This is where online education wins hands down. The flexibility offered to online students is unparalleled - whether it's in terms of the pace of learning or setting your own schedule. Online degree programs are ideally suited for working professionals or those who have other responsibilities. Online programs allow them to draw a better balance between work, home, and education. Campus: Campus-based programs are pretty structured and still operate within rigid schedules. There are set timetables that need to be followed and a minimum attendance requirement for most on campus degrees. It is often difficult for people to manage full-time jobs while they are attending a bricks and mortar college. Cost Online: Online degree programs are more economical than traditional degrees. If you pursue a degree online, you also benefit from saving costs associated with commuting, housing, food, and textbooks (as the study material is available online and costs considerably less). Campus: The spiraling cost of college has been an area of concern for a long time now. However, given the state of the economy, the sky-rocketing tuition fee for campus-based programs is discouraging many from pursuing higher education altogether. Evidently, degree programs, both online and traditional have their pros and cons. That's probably why many colleges have now started looking towards hybrid education, which combines the best of both worlds. A generous use of technology and liberal amount of flexibility coupled with world-class practical training and invigorating social interactions - that's where the future of education lies!

Value of Online MBA in Finance in an Organization

Financial management knowledge is critical in a wide number of areas. You may be involved in a decision whether to use debt or equity financing and must have the knowledge to weigh the benefits and costs of each in order to meet or maintain your company's capital goals. You may be called on to analyze financial information from competitors based on their financial statements and should be able to understand and analyze such information and make intelligent financial decision. Or you may have to plan and analyze project performance if your company invests in capital project that are tied to plans for product development, marketing, and production. In online MBA courses we learn the language of finance, the responsibilities of financial managers, and the relationship between accounting and finance. In online MBA accounting provides financial information and includes financial accounting and managerial accounting. Financial accounting records the financial history of the business and involves the preparation of reports for use by external parties, such as investors and creditors. Accounting information is used by financial managers to make decision regarding the receipt and use of funds to meet corporate objectives and to forecast future financing needs. The finance function analyzes the accounting information to improve decisions affecting the company's wealth. Distance leaning programs describes the many interrelated functions, including obtaining funds, using funds, monitoring performance, and solving current and prospective problems. The MBA students have to know product pricing, planning, and variance analysis. They must know how to manage assets and optimize the rate of return. They have to be familiar with budgeting, effective handling of productive assets, and the financial strengths and weaknesses of the business. The MBA professionals play an important role in the company's goal setting, policy determination, and financial success. Unless the business is small, no one individual handles all the financial decisions; responsibility is dispersed throughout the organization. If you are employed by a large company, the financial responsibilities are probably conducted by the controller, treasurer, and chief financial officer. The activities of the controller and treasurer fall under the umbrella of finance. Online MBA in finance have different focuses. The primary distinctions between accounting and finance involve the treatment of funds and decision making. Accounting is a necessary sub function of finance. Managerial accounting includes the preparation of reports used by management for internal decision making, such as budgeting, costing pricing, capital management, performance evaluation, break-even analysis, transfer pricing, and rate of return analysis. Managerial accounting depends heavily on historical data obtained as part of the financial accounting function.

Properties of Pascal's Pyramid

One famous property of Pascal's triangle is that the sums of the rows are the doubling numbers. Rather than looking at the sums of rows in Pascal's pyramid, we can see if we get any similar patterns when we look at the sums of layers. This has been done for layers 0 to 4 below: Layer 0: 1 Total = 1 Layer 1: 1 1 1 Total = 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 Layer 2: 1 2 2 1 2 1 Total = 1 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 9 Layer 3: 1 3 3 3 6 3 1 3 3 1 Total = 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 1 + 3 + 3 + 1 = 27 Layer 4: 1 4 4 6 12 6 4 12 12 4 1 4 6 4 1 Total = 1 + 4 + 4 + 6 + 12 + 6 + 4 + 12 + 12 + 4 + 1 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 1 = 81 The sums of the layers triple each time, producing a formula for the sum of the nth layer of 3^n. In fact, this property can tell us something else about Pascal's pyramid. Things can easily get very complicated with this, so I'm not going to try too explain this too much. If we look at the average of the numbers in each row of Pascal's triangle, we get the following results for the first few rows: 1, 1, 1.33, 2, 3.2, 5.33, 9.14... Now, if we write down what you have to multiply each term by to get to next, you get 1, 1.33, 1.5, 1.6, 1.67, 1.71, 1.75... If you kept on going, you would get a value closer and closer to 2, so you would get the average of the numbers in the rows eventually doubling each time. If you try this with the average of the layers in Pascal's tetrahedron, you should find you get a sequence which gets closer and closer to tripling each time. This explains why the numbers get large so much faster in Pascal's tetrahedron. We can also look at the symmetry of Pascal's tetrahedron. If you arrange each layer as an equilateral triangle, it has rotational symmetry of order 3, and reflective symmetry from each of its corners to the midpoint of the opposite side. This may sound complicated, but let's think about Pascal's triangle for a moment. in each row, every number appears twice unless it is in the very centre of the row. This is due to the symmetry through the centre of the triangle. Pascal's tetrahedron, however, due to slightly more complicated symmetry, has every number repeated three times is each layer, with the exception of a number which is sometimes found in the very centre of the triangular layer, such as the 6 in layer 3. It is clear, therefore, that many of the properties of Pascal's triangle apply in some way to Pascal's pyramid as well, but it is interesting to think about how these patterns have evolved to suit Pascal's tetrahedron, and the reasons for these changes.

Accredited Online Colleges and Universities

More and more people are inclined towards online education. There are many reasons for this. One of the common reasons is convenience. Onlinedegreeprograms.org listed over 150 fully accredited online colleges and universities. Here are the top online colleges and universities. Capella University is a leader in online education. It is accredited by the North Central Association of Colleges and Schools. It has advanced integrated online chat room and sessions, with 24 hours internet access, you can connect and contribute in the class sessions and discussions anytime you want; it has strong alumni association and teaching quality. It offers bachelors, masters, and doctoral degrees in business and technology, education, human services, and psychology. AIU Online is a distance education branch of the American InterContinental University. AIU Online is a certified and approved institute that has been established with an aim of helping students, with a busy schedules and no time for regular class room lectures. AIU Online focused on providing students with skills required when looking forward to advance in their respective career fields. AIU online offers degree programs in education, business, criminal justice, design and information technology. Kaplan University is one of the world's leading higher education institution and is accredited by the Higher Learning Commission of the North Central Association of Colleges and Schools. (NCA). Kaplan University Online programs provide students opportunities to launch, advance or change careers in a diverse and ever changing global community. It offers professional certificates, associate degrees and bachelor degrees in criminal justice, education, information technology, legal studies, business and health care and master degrees in business, criminal justice and education. University of Phoenix is the largest private accredited university offering students with high quality education. It is a member of the North Central Association. It's commitment to educational excellence and incomparable student service has made this institution of higher learning the leading accredited online university in the United States. It offers degrees at all levels, and the number of majors available is almost limitless. Everest University Online, a division of Everest University, is committed towards providing online education that offers the same curriculum available at a traditional campus to those looking for a convenient and flexible way of earning a degree. It is accredited and certified by Accrediting Council for Independent Colleges and Schools. Everest University Online is authorized to offer master's, bachelor's and associate's degrees and diplomas. Criminal Justice, Accounting, Homeland and Security, Paralegal, Computer Information Science, Criminal Investigations, Business, Criminal Justice, Master of Science in Criminal Justice, Master of Business Administration are among the various courses it offers. Berkeley College is a co-educational college that has grown to an online academic institute. Students are free to study at their own time and pace. Online discussion forums can be utilized to communicate with fellow students and the instructors. Berkeley College provides the students a wide-range of bachelor's degree and associate's degree programs. Colorado Technical University is an accredited university that offers high standard academic services and is granting associate's, bachelor's, master's and doctorate degrees as well as professional certificates.